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Thursday, December 19, 2013

3) Mechanism of accelerating environmental changes & eventual collapse.




 (The following info is temporarily presented in text format... eventually it will be presented in video format when there are more people to help us make it.  PLEASE DO NOT READ IF YOU CANNOT HANDLE THE TRUTH.  There's a saying, "Ignorance is bliss and the truth hurts".  Though ignorance may be blissful, it can never save lives.  The truth though painful, can save lives if people choose to act on it.  Clue:  Ezekiel 33:2 - 33:5 [KJV])

To understand what is happening to our global environment one must approach it from a "zoomed out" and a physic point of view.  There are 3 physic principles to consider.  Firstly,  the earth is nothing more than a ball of mass floating in space.  All volume of mass has a fix capacity for energy.  For example, if it takes 30 minutes to heat and melt a block of aluminum, it will take approximately  twice as long to heat and melt the aluminum if the block size was double.  The larger the block, the more mass there is, the larger the energy capacity; therefore the longer it takes to fill the energy capacity of that mass with the same rate of incoming energy.  Bad things happen when one exceed the energy capacity of a mass.  Consider the following.  What happen when a battery is overcharged?  It leaks or explode.  What happen when a surge of electrical current exceed the Amp current rating of an electrical wire?  It melts or explode, because the excess energy needs to escape somehow.  This is easily visualized with a cup.  The cup represent a mass with a fix energy capacity, when you overfill the cup capacity, any excess will simply overflow.  For the earth, the leaking of this energy build-up drives earthquake, volcanic eruption, tornado, typhoon, hurricane, etc, etc....

The second physic principle to consider is the incoming and outgoing energy rate.  As long as the rate of incoming energy equal the rate of outgoing energy, there will not be any build up of energy in the mass.  Consider this example.  I have a cup with a bunch of holes punched into the bottom of it.  I begin to poor water into this cup.  As long as the rate of water being poor into this cup is equal to or is less than the rate of water pouring out through the holes, the cup will never fill up.  As I begin to plug up these holes, the outgoing rate begins to drop. The moment the incoming rate is greater than the outgoing rate, the cup will begin to fill; and when it exceeds the cup capacity, it will overflow.  How quickly the cup fills depend on how great the difference is between the incoming rate and the outgoing rate.  The greater the difference, the faster it fills up.  This is easily demonstrated by simply tilting a water pitcher and allowing more water to pour into the cup, you will see that the cup will fill up very quickly.  This imbalance between the two rates is the main mechanism behind the global climate change (a.k.a. global warming).

The third physic principle to consider is that of the electromagnetic field.  When you run an electric current through a coil of wire you generate an electromagnetic field.  The strength of the field is dependent on how much current run through the coil.  The bigger the current, the stronger the field; the lesser the current, the weaker the field.  And if there is no current running through the coil, the electromagnetic field collapse.  Now what happen when the coil heats up?  Those of you with electrical engineering background will know that as the temperature of a conductor rises, the resistance to current flow through that conductor also rises.  So as the coil heats up, resistance to current flow rises and the electrical current flowing through the coil weaken leading to a weakening of the magnetic field.  And if the coil heats up to a point where the resistance is so huge that it completely stop current flow, then the electromagnetic field collapse.  For example.  If one takes a portable handheld electric screwdriver and replace the bit with a drill bit and try to drill into a hard material for a long period; one will notice that the electric motor begins to slow down as it heats up due to rising resistance to the electric current flow.  Eventually the electric motor heats up so much it stop working because the electromagnetic field that drive the motor have collapsed.  The earth electromagnetic field (which act as a shield to deflect much of the solar energy heading toward the earth) are generated and operated by the same principle.

Now that we have these three physic principles under our belt, we can begin to analyze how they contribute to accelerating climate changes and the eventual collapse of the surface environmental system.  (Note: We are aware of the the cyclical fluctuation in the sun energy coming to the earth, hence we have cyclical ice age whenever the rate of incoming energy is less than the outgoing rate.  But for simplicity of illustration, we can averaged out this cyclical fluctuation over a long period of time and get an averaged constant rate of incoming energy.  Thus, any deviation from this constant rate would be due to causes other than the natural cyclical fluctuation.)

For a very long time, the rate of energy coming to the earth from the sun was relatively equal to the rate of energy leaving the earth.  The rate of energy leaving is determine by the surface area of the spheroid earth, which is pretty much fixed.  (Surface area play a role in energy dissipation, this is why there are rows of tiny fins behind the refrigerator or air conditioner, in order to increase the surface area and thus increase energy dissipation). So the earth as a ball of mass remain in relative balance till about 1750 when the Industrial Revolution came on the scene.  With the Industrial Revolution, companies began to pollute the environment on a massive industrialized scale; massive amount of external CO2 were pumped into the atmosphere.  CO2 is a greenhouse gas that acts like an insulation layer to reduce the rate of outgoing energy.  So dumping more and more external CO2 into the atmosphere is like wrapping the earth with more and more layers of insulation.  This lead to a widening imbalance between the incoming and outgoing energy rate.  This increasing imbalance  leads to a faster and faster rate of energy build up in the earth, because more energy is coming in than going out.   Which means the rate of energy exceeding the earth energy capacity and overflowing also increases.  This translate to increasing frequency of natural disasters like earthquake, volcanic eruption, hurricane,typhoon, etc, etc...   To visualize this on a small scale, simply try to heat and boil a pot of water and observe.  In the beginning everything is calm, but as the body of water absorb the thermal energy and approach the boiling point a few small bubbles will start to form.  Then the bubble forming will become more frequent, not only that but the size of the bubbles will start to increase.  So not only will the frequency of natural disasters increase, but the magnitude, the strength of these natural disasters will increase also.  Earthquake magnitude will rise on the Richter scale,  volcanoes will erupt with more and more force and with increase frequency.  To understand this, you can do a simple experiment.  Make a cloth pouch, fill it with some ketchup, now squeeze the pouch slowly and you will see the ketchup ooze out through the pores of the cloth.  Repeat the same experiment, only this time squeeze the pouch very quickly and you will see the ketchup squirt out very forcefully (hint : think volcanic eruption).  The quicker you squeeze is akin to the faster the energy is building up in the earth.  (Note: there is a profound difference between CO2 whose carbon came from the current organic cycle vs. CO2 whose carbon came from outside this organic cycle, hence we call it "external CO2".  These external CO2 are created when methane(CH4), coal(matrix of carbons -C-C), and mineral oils(chains of hydrocarbons -CH2) are combusted.  It is these external CO2 that are responsible for the increase in global CO2 level leading to the insulation effect that reduce the outgoing energy rate.  More in dept discussion of this topic will be covered in a different blog.)

Unfortunately, this is not the only thing that is going on.  As the earth temperature rises (i.e. thermal energy building up), the resistance to current conduction in the earth core rises, causing the electrical current flow to drop, leading to the weakening of the earth electromagnetic field.  As the field weakens, it allows more solar energy to come through, thus heating up the earth even more.  As the earth heats up more, current flow resistance rises even more and the electrical current flow drops even further; which weakens the electromagnetic field even more.  Thus the cycle keep repeating itself, compounding the effects on top of each others.  In essence, the process is accelerating the rate of thermal energy build up in the earth system.  Those of you with engineering background will recognized that this is a positive feedback loop.  The failure of nuclear reactors like those at Chernobyl, 3 Miles Island, and Fukushima Daiichi follow the exact same format.  Some initial incident initiate an imbalance between the rate of energy incoming versus outgoing from the reactor system.  As the energy build up in the system, it boils away the coolant and dropping the rate of energy leaving the system even further, thus triggering the feedback loops.  The feedback loops lead to an accelerated rise in energy build-up till it exceeded the energy capacity of the system.  When that happens, you end up with either a core meltdown, an explosion, or both.  Understanding this, we begin to recognize that we are living on the surface of a giant run away reactor.  What is most perplexing is that, with run away nuclear reactor scenarios, people scramble their butts to address the problem; but with the earth's run away reactor scenario, we are dragging our feet.

The collapsing magnetic field is not the only factor contributing to the acceleration of global warming (a.k.a. climate change).  As the earth heats up, the increased temperature also raises the evaporation rate of bodies of water (i.e. oceans, seas, etc..).  On top of this, as the polar ice melt it raises the sea level and flooding areas of the earth, which in turn increase the surface area of these bodies of water.  Increasing the surface area additionally contribute to raising the evaporation rate of these bodies of water.  Consider this experiment.  We have two equal volume of water, one is held in a cup, while the other is spread out over a large area on the table.  The one spread out over the table will evaporate much quicker then the one held in a cup because of the larger surface area it occupied.  As the evaporation rate increases, this translate to an increase in water vapor in the atmosphere.  Water vapor is a potent greenhouse gas also; which acts to absorb and retain the thermal energy, thus reducing the rate of energy leaving the earth even further.  In essence, the water vapor compound the insulation effect caused by rising CO2 level.  We can easily see this property of water by doing the following experiment.  Heat a block of aluminum and a cup of water with the same about of thermal energy.  We will see that the aluminum block cools down much faster than the cup of water, because the water hold onto the thermal energy much longer.  If we are observant, we'll realize that the increasing evaporation rate enter into a positive feedback loop similar to the collapsing electromagnetic field.  The increased in evaporation rate leads to increased insulation effect, which lowered the outgoing energy rate, allowing more thermal energy to build up; this in turn increase the evaporation rate.  Thus the cycles repeat themselves, compounding the effects upon each other.

So as we can see, global warming is increasing not at a linear rate but at an exponential rate due to the compounded effects of continue dumping of external CO2 into the atmosphere as well as the triggered feedback looping of the collapsing electromagnetic field and the triggered feedback looping of water bodies evaporation.  What this mean is that the time interval between one natural disaster and the next is getting shorter and shorter exponentially.  We are quickly running out of time and are fast approaching the point of no return.  What is a point of no return?  It is a point where no matter what one does, the intervention can no longer change the outcome.  An example is the fate of the Titanic.  By the time they spot the iceberg and try to make a drastic course correction, it was too late, the ship had gone pass the point of no return.  No matter how sharp they turned the boat, it still collided with the iceberg.    When we combine these understanding with the fact that people have been warning the world about global warming and its devastating effects as far back as 1970 (to the best of our knowledge), we begin to realize how dire the situation is.  We have squandered about forty years.  Forty precious years that could have been used to change the outcome or at least to prepare our societies for the effects that they will face; yet neither was done, and all the while the process is accelerating at an exponential rate toward the point of no return.

So why are people freezing their butts in certain parts of the world if there is global warming?  To understand this, simply examine a thermal infrared image of a storm system.

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/6/6e/Katrina2005-colorIR.GIF
(Attribution: University of Wisconsin Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies) 

We will notice that the heat are being suction up into the vortex.  So as the vortex of these storm systems pass through a local region, heat are being drawn up leaving in their wake very low temperature.  As a consequence, the stronger the storm system, the stronger the vortex, and the colder the local region gets as these storm systems pass through the area suctioning up the heat.  So as global warming continues to accelerate, the build up in thermal energy will drive the storm system stronger and stronger, so it will get colder and colder in the localized region when these storm system pass through.  As an example, consider what happen when a glass of lemonade is made.  As one swirl the spoon in the lemonade glass, a vortex is made; the more energy one puts into swirling the spoon, the stronger the vortex is created.  Another way to visualize this is to consider the function of the fan in the back of a computer.  The fan is there to suction out the heat from inside the computer and blow it out the back, the stronger the fan rotates, the more heat is suctioned out.  In a similar fashion, the vortex of a storm acts like a fan that suction heat from one area and blow it out into another, the stronger the vortex is, the more heat it will suction up.  It is unfortunate that when people lacking science knowledge hear the term "global warming" they assume that everywhere on the globe should be getting hotter all the time due to the literal interpretation of the vocabularies of the term .  As a result, there is apathy towards treating the situation seriously; since their interpretation is contradicted by the coldness they experienced when these storm systems pass through the area they live in.


We will now examine how the accelerating global warming leads to the collapse of the surface environmental system.  To understand this, we start at the bottom of the food chain which are the simple micro-organisms which feed more complex organism above them.  As organism goes from complex to simple their range of tolerance for environmental changes (temp, pH, chemical concentration, etc.) diminishes.  For example, we human is a very complex organism, so we can withstand a greater range of temperature variation without adverse affects to our reproduction rate.  But the bacteria, which is more simpler, their range of temperature tolerance is much more narrow.  A deviation of few degrees from their optimum growth temperature and the bacteria reproduction rate drop drastically.  Anyone who've taken a college microbiology lab class will recall having to do an experiment to determine the optimum growth temperature of bacteria colonies.  You would inoculate several petri dishes with a sample bacteria batch, then incubate each petri dish at a different temperature.  After several days you would count the bacteria populations and make a graph of bacteria population vs. temperature.  You would have noticed you got a bell shape curve, where the optimum growth temperature is at the center of the bell curve and as the temperature deviate from this optimum temperature, the bacteria population would drop off drastically.  In a similar fashion, as global temperature rises, it adversely impact the reproduction rate of the organisms at the bottom of the food chain.  As the population of these organisms shrink drastically, those organisms that are dependent on the bottom tier ones as their food source will starve and start to die off; which in turn affects those above them.  This process cascade itself up the food chain.  This is why fisherman are starting to catch deep sea animal in shallower water, and why strange deep sea creature never seen before are starting to wash ashore.  As the food chain collapse, the sea animals are force to expand their search range for food (similar to when there is a drought in a local region of Africa and people are forced to migrate out to other regions in search of food).  When these deep sea animal travel too far up in search for food, the drop in pressure can be lethal to them, they die and wash ashore.  This is no different than if we human was to go up into space without a spacesuit, the drop in pressure would be lethal to us.
http://www.nydailynews.com/news/national/giant-oarfish-found-california-coast-article-1.1491007

In addition, as the magnetic field weakens further and further, more and more solar energy will get through and scorch the earth surface.  In the beginning, we will experience more and more wildfire in different parts of the world.  Consider what happens every summer when the northern hemisphere is tilted toward the sun and there is a slight increase in solar energy, we get wild fire in places like Malibu,CA.  In the winter when the southern hemisphere is tilted toward the sun, we get wild fire in places like Australia.  All these events are happening while the earth magnetic field is still on.  Consider what will happen when the earth magnetic field is severely weaken or collapse, and it can no longer protect us from the full brunt of the sun solar energy, and the hemisphere are tilted toward the sun?

The wildfire is only the beginning, as the solar energy intensity increases it will penetrate the ground and start to cook and kill off the micro-organisms in the soil.  Soil micro-organisms create and maintain a bio-matrix that helps to hold the soil particles together.  (Ever notice that when you try to blow the dust off the top of an old book shelf that there still remain a thin layer of dust that sticks to the shelf? This sticky film of dust is the bio-matrix created by the micro-organisms in the air that have settled there.)  When the micro-organisms of the soil die off, the bio-matrix collapse and the soil becomes dust like, easily pick up by the wind and turn into a dust storm.  The Great Dust Bowl in the 30's came about by a similar mechanism.  The over use of chemical fertilizer led to a build up of high concentration of chemicals in the soil beyond the tolerance level of the micro-organisms; compounded with a series of drought, they led to the destruction of the soil micro-organisms and the collapse of the bio-matrix that keep the soil from blowing off.  Since the dust storm travel, it will deposit the dust into neighboring region, sometime up to several feet thick.  The combination of dust deposit and static electrical discharge (due to the rubbing of dust particles in the turbulent winds) destroyed agriculture production in the neighboring areas as well.



http://thelitworks.files.wordpress.com/2012/02/rutting-in-the-dust-bowl.jpg

(To know more about this process, just study documentaries about the Great Dust Bowl to gain foresight into the hardship that we will have to face if we do not prepare).





So as the earth magnetic field weakens, the increase penetration of the sun solar energy will start to destroy more and more regions of the earth soil, causing more and more dust storms to appear in different parts of the globe.  Which then will travel and destroy agricultural land and ecological system in neighboring regions.  This process has already started, but few seem to recognize the seriousness this portend.  Though seemingly benign at first, these dust storms will get worst and worst and more frequent; in a similar fashion to how the Great Dust Bowl first started.  The only difference is, this time it is occurring on a global scale, multiple regions around the world will be experiencing this. Consider the following pictures, one is taken during the Great Dust Bowl of 1930's,the second is taken in August 2012  above Phoenix, AZ in U.S.A., and the third is taken in January 2013 in Australia.


Image result for 2013 australian dust storm



Update: Dust Storms Around The World In Year 2018 Exactly As We've Forewarned
(5-6 years after the previous pictures)

Northwest China


Arizona, U.S.A.


Texas, U.S.A.


Western Australia


Saudi Arabia


North India


Africa



The next two blogs will cover the topic of "Mechanism of financial collapse and how climate change accelerate this process", and the topic of "Is there hope? Is there a way out of this death trap we've put ourselves in?"


(For those with the wisdom to understand:  "When the averaged global earthquakes magnitude reach 8.5 on the Richter scale, we will know that we are up to our neck in poo.  When the pile of poo cover our nose, we will know that we have pass the point of no return.")

KEY: The Grasshopper and the Ants

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